The SEI researchers collaborated with local agencies and stakeholders to understand their goals, the questions they wanted to explore, and how they measure successful planning. They tested around 500 different scenarios up to the year 2065, which is when Thailand aims to reach its net-zero target. The results of these scenarios helped identify “low-regret” decisions, which are choices that can help Thailand move closer to its goals, no matter how the uncertainties unfold.
Currently, natural gas accounts for about 62% of Thailand’s electricity generation, with coal contributing 20%, and other sources like renewable energy, biofuels, and hydroelectricity making up the rest. The country also imports hydropower from neighboring Lao PDR, which can be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. The scenario exercise suggests that expanding renewable energy infrastructure doesn’t raise electricity costs or negatively affect other goals, such as improving power system reliability. Thailand has significant potential for solar energy and energy storage, and increasing connections between different power planning regions could lower costs and optimize electricity resources.
The scenarios show that gas can still be part of Thailand’s electricity mix in the long term while meeting its emissions goals. However, its share of the power mix will need to decrease significantly over time, especially as cleaner sources like solar energy are added. More importantly, EPPO has gained valuable skills using LEAP and NEMO. They learned how to update assumptions in the model, run additional scenarios, and answer specific policy questions using the electricity model of Thailand, which SEI developed for the IRRP analysis.
In response, EPPO’s Director-General requested the formation of a core team of technical staff to maintain and use the model in the future. SEI is eager to continue supporting EPPO’s long-term goal of combining various modeling initiatives into one comprehensive model that covers all energy sectors. This will unlock new capabilities and help EPPO address more energy-related questions and priorities.
