In a maternal healthcare event hosted in the White House Oval Office on Monday, which was streamed live on the White House YouTube page, U.S. President Donald Trump described the U.S.-Iran ceasefire as being on “massive life support”.
“I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support where the doctor walks in and says, ‘sir, your loved one has approximately a one percent chance of living’,” Trump said at the event.
When asked by a reporter at the event if, for the time being, the ceasefire remains in place, Trump responded, “it’s unbelievably weak”.
“I would call it the weakest right now,” he added.
Rigzone has contacted the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Trump’s statements. At the time of writing, the ministry has not responded to Rigzone.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, Konstantinos Chrysikos Head of Customer Relationship Management at Kudotrade, said crude markets extended gains on Tuesday “as concerns about the U.S.-Iran ceasefire increased following President Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s latest counterproposal”.
“The U.S. President described the ceasefire as on ‘massive life support’, adding to the uncertainty. With diplomatic progress stalling, fears of a re-escalation could keep the market on edge,” he added.
“In the meantime, the extended shutdown of the waterway continues to disrupt global flows of crude. A prolonged blockade could make normalization more difficult and push it toward 2027,” Chrysikos warned.
Looking at demand in the analysis, Chrysikos said oil importers “could continue to turn to alternative sources in the U.S. and other countries, as the physical market remains tight”.
Chrysikos went on to warn that the outlook remains skewed to the upside while risks of an escalation remain persistent.
“Supply deficits are likely to keep prices elevated, with volatility remaining high around any diplomatic headline,” he added.
“In this regard, a credible diplomatic resolution could put downside pressure on prices, although some hurdles to rapid normalization could remain,” he went on to state.
While responding to questions at a press conference at the United Nations Office in Nairobi, Kenya, on Monday, UN Secretary General António Guterres said, “in relation to the situation in the Gulf, I think it is absolutely essential to find a diplomatic solution”.
“My strong appeal is for the negotiations to go on until that diplomatic solution is found, the ceasefire to be maintained, and in between, the Strait of Hormuz to be completely open,” Guterres added at the event, which was transcribed on the UN website.
“Any restart of the fighting would have terrible consequences,” he went on to warn.
At the time of writing, the Brent Crude price is trading at more than $107 per barrel and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude price is trading at more than $101 per barrel. On January 7, the Brent price closed at under $60 per barrel and the WTI price closed at under $56 per barrel.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Monday, Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, said oil was moving higher because traders were adding back a supply risk premium.
“The Strait of Hormuz remains the key pressure point for global energy markets, and any threat to shipping flows can quickly raise freight costs, insurance costs, and fear of tighter available crude supply,” Aslam said in that analysis.
“When peace talks look stronger, oil usually gives back risk premium because traders expect supply routes to normalize. When talks weaken, prices rise because buyers worry about disrupted barrels, tanker delays, and higher costs across fuel, shipping, airlines, and manufacturing,” Aslam added.
In a statement sent to Rigzone on April 8, Aslam noted that oil had “sharply repriced lower into the mid-$90s”, adding that WTI and Brent were down 13-15 percent intraday “as a two-week Strait of Hormuz ceasefire triggers a rapid unwind of geopolitical risk premium following the $110+ spike”.
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