U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that a further drop in energy prices could force Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
“If energy goes down enough, Putin is going to stop killing people,” Trump told CNBC. “If you get energy down, another $10 a barrel, he’s going to have no choice because his economy stinks.”
Crude prices slid again on Tuesday. As of early afternoon, WTI was down $0.94 (-1.42%) at $65.35, while Brent crude fell $0.85 (-1.24%) to $67.91.
Trump’s comments follow last weekend’s OPEC+ decision to continue unwinding its 2.2 million bpd voluntary production cuts, a move that is pressuring prices amid persistent uncertainty over Asia’s crude imports and the anticipated seasonal slowdown in demand that typically begins in September. The cartel added another 547,000 bpd to its September quotas, with the UAE alone set to add 300,000 bpd.
While OPEC+ has left the door open to pausing or reversing course, traders are clearly betting that rising supply will keep prices under pressure—at least in the short term.
Trump, meanwhile, is taking an aggressive stance on countries still importing Russian crude. He recently announced plans to raise tariffs on India, criticizing its ongoing purchases and resale of Russian oil. “India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian oil, they are then, for much of the oil purchased, selling it on the open market for big profits,” he wrote on Truth Social.
President Trump has long promised to do what some see as a contradiction: lower domestic energy prices while simultaneously threatening to choke off Russian oil supply through secondary sanctions. His administration has said tariffs could reach 100% if countries like India or Turkey continue to defy U.S. pressure to halt purchases.
Whether lower prices alone are enough to move the Kremlin remains to be seen—but markets appear to be testing the theory. The drop in crude this week suggests traders believe OPEC+ supply increases and tepid demand could bring prices closer to the level Trump sees as economically suffocating for Moscow.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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