US Natural Gas Drops on Cooler Outlooks as July Contract Expires

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US natural gas futures settled much lower in the final day of trading for the July contract as midday forecasts shifted to show cooler weather compared with overnight outlooks. Individual transactions moved the market more amid a drop-off in liquidity near expiry.


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Losses were likely limited as flows to liquefied natural gas export terminals on the US Gulf Coast remain elevated. Increased LNG flows leave fewer supplies for the domestic market.

The more-actively-traded contract for August delivery, which is now the front-month contract, at the benchmark Henry Hub also ended lower.

  • Futures for July delivery settled -11.2c, or -3.3%, to $3.231/mmbtu on Nymex
    • Futures for August delivery settled -1.6c or -0.5% to $3.279/mmbtu
    • July futures expired today

Weather:

  • Midday forecasts shifted to show cooler weather, with below-average temperatures expected in the Northwest through June 30: WeatherDesk
  • See WHUT for a map of latest 6-10 day weather forecast: NOAA

Daily BNEF Gas Data:

  • Lower-48 dry gas production on Friday ~112.6 bcf/day, or +4.9% y/y
  • Lower-48 total gas demand on Friday ~71.3 bcf/day, or -6.9% y/y
  • Dry gas exports to Mexico on Friday ~8.3 bcf/day, or -2.3% w/w
  • Estimated gas flows to LNG export terminals on Friday ~19.1 bcf/day, or +4.1% w/w

Gas Market News:

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

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