US to Produce Less Oil in 2025 Than Previously Expected Amid Declining Prices, EIA Says

EIA lowers its 2025 oil production forecast to 13.37 million bpd
Geopolitical tensions influence Brent crude price forecast
US oil demand to rise slightly in 2025 vs 2024, EIA reports

NEW YORK, July 8 (Reuters) – The U.S. will produce less oil in 2025 than previously expected as declining oil prices have prompted U.S. producers to slow activity this year, the Energy Information Administration forecast on Tuesday in a monthly report.

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The world’s largest oil producer is projected to produce 13.37 million barrels per day of oil in 2025, versus last month’s forecast of 13.42 million bpd, the EIA said in its short-term energy outlook report. In 2026, the U.S. will produce 13.37 million bpd, in line with the previous forecast.

Though still a record high, the lower 2025 forecast comes as U.S. producers have had to navigate President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs that have sparked economic uncertainty, rising supply quotas from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, and conflict between Iran and Israel.

The U.S. produced 13.21 million bpd in 2024. Before Trump took office in January, he campaigned on a promise of boosting domestic energy production, and last month urged his administration to “drill, baby, drill” after U.S. attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which prompted fears that energy prices could spike.

The EIA raised its Brent crude futures price forecast to an average of $68.89 per barrel this year from $65.97 per barrel. Brent prices are expected to average $58.48 per barrel in 2026.

“The increase in the forecast is driven largely by higher near-term prices due to a more significant geopolitical risk premium from the conflict (over Iran’s nuclear program),” the EIA said. Still, the agency expects buildups in global oil inventories that will pressure prices.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures will average $65.22 per barrel in 2025, the EIA forecast, up from the previous forecast of $62.33 per barrel. WTI prices will average $54.82 a barrel in 2026, it said.

U.S. oil demand in 2025 will rise to 20.4 million bpd from 20.3 million bpd in 2024, the EIA said. Demand is expected to hold steady next year.

Reporting by Stephanie Kelly Editing by Rod Nickel