In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on February 11, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its Henry Hub spot price forecast for 2025 and 2026.
According to its February STEO, the EIA now sees the Henry Hub spot price averaging $3.79 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025 and $4.16 per MMBtu in 2026. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in January, saw the Henry Hub spot price averaging $3.14 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.97 per MMBtu in 2026.
The EIA projected in its latest STEO that the Henry Hub spot price will come in at $3.70 per MMBtu in the first quarter of this year, $3.39 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.95 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $4.11 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $4.26 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $3.81 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $4.21 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.35 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter.
In its previous STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot price would average $3.21 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025, $2.59 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.18 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $3.59 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $4.03 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2026, $3.63 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $4.06 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.17 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter.
The EIA noted in its February STEO that the Henry Hub spot price averaged $4.13 per MMBtu in January. It highlighted that this was up more than $1.00 from the December average of $3.01 per MMBtu.
“The above-average withdrawals from underground natural gas storage in January caused prices to rise,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.
“The Henry Hub spot price reached a high of $9.86 per MMBtu on January 17 ahead of a cold snap that was expected to affect much of the United States over the mid-month holiday weekend,” it added.
“The 37 percent uptick in the monthly average Henry Hub price in January from December, combined with our forecast of below-average storage inventories through the end of 2025, increased the annual average 2025 price in our forecast by around 65 cents compared with our January Short-Term Energy Outlook,” it continued.
In its February STEO, the EIA warned that weather is always a risk to its Henry Hub price forecast during the winter heating season.
“An additional risk over the forecast period includes timing of new liquefied natural gas production that developers expect to start up over the next two years,” the EIA added.
“We expect China’s imposition of tariffs on U.S. LNG to have a limited effect on U.S. LNG exports. With ample demand for LNG globally, we expect that any LNG not purchased by China would be imported elsewhere,” it continued.
A report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell on February 11 showed that Standard Chartered expected the nearby future NYMEX basis Henry Hub U.S. natural gas price to average $3.20 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025, $3.50 per MMBtu across the second and third quarters, and $2.80 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter. The company saw the commodity averaging $3.30 per MMBtu overall in 2026, the report showed.
In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on February 10, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, projected that the Henry Hub price will average $3.4 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.8 per MMBtu in 2026. A Bloomberg consensus included in the report forecast that the Henry Hub price will average $3.4 per MMBtu this year and $3.7 per MMBtu in 2026.
A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on February 7 showed that J.P. Morgan saw the U.S. natural gas henry hub price averaging $3.50 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.94 per MMBtu in 2026.
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