USA EIA Lowers WTI Oil Price Forecasts

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot average price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on May 6.

According to that STEO, the EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $61.81 per barrel this year and $55.24 per barrel next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in April, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $63.88 per barrel in 2025 and $57.48 per barrel in 2026. Both STEOs highlighted that the WTI spot price came in at $76.60 per barrel in 2024.

The EIA’s latest STEO forecast that the WTI spot price will average $60.85 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025, $58 per barrel in the third quarter, $57 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $56 per barrel across the first and second quarters of next year, $55 per barrel in the third quarter, and $54 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. This STEO pointed out that the WTI spot price averaged $71.85 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025.

In its April STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would come in at $62.33 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025, $61.67 per barrel in the third quarter, $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $59 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $58 per barrel in the second quarter, $57 per barrel in the third quarter, and $56 per barrel in the fourth quarter. This STEO also highlighted that the WTI spot price averaged $71.85 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025.

Back in its March STEO, the EIA forecast that the WTI spot price average would come in at $70.68 per barrel in 2025 and $64.97 per barrel in 2026. That STEO also highlighted that the 2024 WTI spot price averaged $76.60 per barrel.

In a Standard Chartered Bank report sent to Rigzone by the company’s commodities research head, Paul Horsnell, late Tuesday, Standard Chartered forecast that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $58 per barrel in 2025, $75 per barrel in 2026, and $80 per barrel in 2027.

That report showed that Standard Chartered sees the commodity coming in at $50 per barrel in the second quarter of this year, $49 per barrel in the third quarter, $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $68 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, and $78 per barrel in the third quarter.

A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on May 3 showed that J.P. Morgan expected the WTI crude price to average $62 per barrel in 2025 and $54 per barrel in 2026.

In that research note, J.P. Morgan projected that the commodity will average $63 per barrel in the second quarter of this year, $59 per barrel in the third quarter, $57 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $51 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $53 per barrel across the second and third quarters of 2026, and $56 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Friday, BMI projected that the front month WTI crude price will average $65 per barrel in 2025 and $68 per barrel in 2026.

In a Stratas Advisors report sent to Rigzone by the Stratas team late Monday, the company highlighted that “the price of WTI ended the [previous] week at $58.29 [per barrel] after closing the previous week at $63.02 [per barrel].

To contact the author, email 

 

  • Related Posts

    Baghdad Hosting EU Energy Talks After Iraq Floats OPEC Exit

    European officials are expected to visit Baghdad in the coming weeks for high-level talks on energy cooperation, just hours after Iraq warned it could leave OPEC unless the producer group…

    Saudi Arabia Set to Slash Oil Prices as Hormuz Reopens

    Saudi Arabia is expected to slash the official selling prices of its crude loading for Asia in August, as Middle East’s crude benchmarks crashed amid the tentative reopening of the…

    Have You Seen?

    Afrigen Energy Invites Investors and Strategic Partners for Financing of 50 MW Private Solar PV Project

    • June 27, 2026
    Afrigen Energy Invites Investors and Strategic Partners for Financing of 50 MW Private Solar PV Project

    Global Utilities and Manufacturers Unite to Strengthen Grid Supply Chains Amid Rising Electrification Demand

    • June 27, 2026
    Global Utilities and Manufacturers Unite to Strengthen Grid Supply Chains Amid Rising Electrification Demand

    Infinity Power Selects AIKO as Sole PV Module Supplier for Egypt’s 1.2 GW Nefer Menya Solar and 600 MWh Battery Storage Project

    • June 27, 2026
    Infinity Power Selects AIKO as Sole PV Module Supplier for Egypt’s 1.2 GW Nefer Menya Solar and 600 MWh Battery Storage Project

    Oil Prices Dive as More Tankers Move Through Strait of Hormuz

    • June 27, 2026
    Oil Prices Dive as More Tankers Move Through Strait of Hormuz

    AMERICAN ENERGY SNAPSHOT: America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve

    • June 27, 2026
    AMERICAN ENERGY SNAPSHOT: America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve

    Magnolia Oil & Gas Is in Lead to Acquire WildFire for Over $4 Billion

    • June 27, 2026
    Magnolia Oil & Gas Is in Lead to Acquire WildFire for Over $4 Billion

    US Natural Gas Drops on Cooler Outlooks as July Contract Expires

    • June 27, 2026
    US Natural Gas Drops on Cooler Outlooks as July Contract Expires

    US Energy Firms Add Most Rigs in a Week Since June 2022, Baker Hughes Says

    • June 26, 2026
    US Energy Firms Add Most Rigs in a Week Since June 2022, Baker Hughes Says

    Chevron Eyes More Deals to Power US Data Centers

    • June 26, 2026
    Chevron Eyes More Deals to Power US Data Centers

    US Diesel Refining Economics Remain Firm Despite Iran War Truce

    • June 26, 2026
    US Diesel Refining Economics Remain Firm Despite Iran War Truce