China’s streak of weak monthly coal imports continues, dragging thermal coal prices in Asia to a four-year low.
Record-high domestic coal production and weaker coal-fired power generation in China have resulted in declining demand for thermal coal imports into the world’s biggest coal market.
In April, China’s coal imports fell to 22.72 million metric tons, from 23.84 million tons imported in March, per data from commodity analysts Kpler cited by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell.
Over the period January to April, China’s thermal coal imports slumped by 13.1% from a year earlier, to 91.56 million tons, according to the data compiled by Kpler.
India’s coal imports rebounded in March and April, but were weak for January and February, meaning that the overall imports for the first four month of 2025 were down by 6.7% from a year earlier, Kpler’s estimates showed.
Japan’s imports of thermal coal were also weaker by 5% in January-April compared to the same period of 2024.
As a result, the price of the Australian thermal coal grade popular with Chinese importers slumped to below $70 per ton last week, for the first time since May 2021.
The price of Indonesia’s coal also dropped to a four-year low on May 2, per the data reported by Reuters’s Russell.
In China, in view of the low domestic coal prices, weaker demand, and high coal inventories at ports, China’s import decline has not been a surprise, and analysts will not be surprised if the trend of lower coal imports continues for the next few months.
Globally, China is the leader in renewable energy capacity installations, but it is also a leader in coal-fired power and continues to be the key driver of record-high global coal demand.
The persistent growth in Chinese coal demand, including for power generation, goes to show that coal remains the baseload of China’s power system to back up the surge in renewables and will stay such for years to come as power demand jumps with the increasing electrification of homes and transport.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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