The bank estimates around $3-4 per barrel of upside risk to its Brent and WTI oil price forecast of $60/bbl and $56/bbl respectively for the rest of 2025, and $56/bbl and $52/bbl respectively in 2026.
The United States and China said on Monday that they would pause their tariffs for 90 days. Following the talks in Geneva over the weekend, the United States said it will cut tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145% while China said it would cut duties on U.S. imports to 10% from 125%.
Goldman said that reduced recession risk has also reduced the probability of very low oil prices, although solid supply growth outside U.S. shale may still push prices significantly lower.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, called OPEC+, are planning to boost oil exports in May and June, which is seen as possibly limiting oil’s upside.
Oil prices fell to a four-year low last month on investor worries that the U.S.-China trade war could depress economic growth and oil demand.
The bank said that while it sees some upside risk to its oil price forecasts, it still expects a significant hit from tariffs to U.S. real income, global GDP, and global oil demand.
Brent crude futures were trading at $66.77/bbl by 1443 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $63.85/bbl.
(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Mark Porter and David Evans)
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