(Reuters) – The middle section of the U.S. and Canada could have a shortfall of electricity this summer if higher-than-normal forecasted temperatures drive up demand as a changing mix of power supplies increases reliability risks, the organization overseeing the area’s grid said on Wednesday.
Electricity demand in the United States and Canada has grown by 10 gigawatts since last summer — a more than doubling of the previous year’s increase — while fossil-fired power supplies retire and solar power additions surge, the North American Electricity Reliability Corporation said.
At the same time electricity consumption rises from data centers, manufacturing and the electrification of industries like transportation, the sources of power generation on the North American electrical grid are shifting from around-the-clock power plants like coal and nuclear to intermittent supply from renewables, like solar and wind.
That change has presented new challenges for grid reliability during the summer months, according to NERC, when the use of energy-guzzling air conditioning systems threatens to strip resources on the grid and cause power shortfalls.
ERCOT, which controls the Texas grid, will be tested in the early evening hours, when demand increases but solar power output wanes.
“When the sun goes down, that late early evening time period, that’s when there’s potential to fall short,” NERC’s John Moura during NERC’s annual Summer Reliability Assessment news conference call.
In the Southwest Power Pool, which covers states, including Montana, New Mexico and Nebraska, low wind power generation could throw off the supply and demand balance. Major Midwestern grid operator MISO, meanwhile, is expected to have less supply than last year with the retirement of 1,575 megawatts of natural gas and coal-fired generation since last summer.
Outlier region New England is also at elevated risk of shortfalls.
More than 7 gigawatts of fossil-fired power generation, including coal and natural gas, is expected to have retired since last summer in North America. At the same time as those around-the-clock power supplies retire, about 30 gigawatts of installed solar capacity, along with 13 gigawatts of battery storage capacity, has been added on the continent over the last year, NERC said in its report.
The U.S. and Canada will need to add new transmission lines and power supplies to keep up with demand and rising temperatures to avoid shortfalls in the summer months, said Moura, who leads NERC’s reliability assessment and system analysis.
“As demand grows, we’ve got to build infrastructure,” Moura said.
Reporting by Laila Kearney; Editing by Aurora Ellis
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