The EU’s solar power market is set to register this year its first annual decline in capacity rollout since 2025, amid the withdrawal of incentive schemes for rooftop solar in key markets, industry association SolarPower Europe said in a mid-year analysis on Thursday.
Current forecasts point to the EU installing 64.2 gigawatts (GW) this year, down by 1.4% compared to 65.1 GW installed in 2024.
That’s despite estimates that solar output in Europe is soaring and is set to boom in the summer.
“The number may seem small, but the symbolism is big. Market decline, right when solar is meant to be accelerating, deserves EU leaders’ attention,” SolarPower Europe deputy CEO Dries Acke said in a statement
“Now policymakers must deliver the electrification, flexibility and energy storage frameworks that will drive solar success through the rest of the decade.”
The expected decline in capacity expansion this year follows exceptional annual market expansions in 2022 and 2023, when installations jumped by 47% and 51%, respectively, SolarPower Europe said. In 2024, the solar market growth flattened to a 3.3% annual increase compared to 2023.
The expected decline of solar installations in 2025 is driven primarily by a declining rooftop segment, particularly home solar, according to the association.
In traditionally strong residential rooftop solar markets, like Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Czechia, and Hungary, households are now postponing installations as the impact of the 2022 energy crisis wanes. In many of these markets, the withdrawal of incentive schemes without adequate replacements has led to the residential rooftop market collapsing by over 60% compared to 2023.
The EU’s target to have 750 GW of solar PV installed by 2030 needs annual capacity additions of nearly 70 GW each year.
The current trend of about 65 GW suggests that Europe will fall short of its goals, hosting 723 GW of solar PV by 2030, compared to the required 750 GW, the industry association noted.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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