Summary
- OPEC+ supply increase expected to arrive in autumn
- Lackluster US demand expected as summer driving season ends
- Uncertainty over Russian supply impacts market sentiment
- Russian oil exports to India set to rise despite US pressure
(Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Friday as traders looked toward weaker demand in the U.S., the world’s largest oil market, and a boost in supply this autumn from OPEC and its allies.
Brent crude futures for October delivery, which expired on Friday, settled at $68.12 a barrel, down 50 cents, or 0.73%. The more active contract for November finished down 53 cents, or 0.78%, at $67.45.
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West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $64.01, down 59 cents, or 0.91%.
The market was in part shifting its focus toward next week’s OPEC+ meeting, said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates.
Crude output has increased from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, as the group has accelerated output hikes to regain market share, raising the supply outlook and weighing on global oil prices.
“Overall, the bottom line is we’re going to see a jump in supply feeding into a lackluster demand market,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
The U.S. summer driving season ends on Monday’s Labor Day holiday, signalling the end of the highest demand period in the United States, which is the largest fuel market.
“The market is beginning to wonder what effect the tariffs might have on the economic outlook next year,” Lipow said, referring to tariffs imposed by the administration of President Donald Trump on U.S. imports from many trading partners.
Crude supply increases have not made their way into the U.S. market yet, raising the possibility supply and demand will be in a tighter balance, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group.
“The pessimism about demand, I’m just not seeing it,” Flynn said. “Supply from OPEC is supposed to increase, but we’re not seeing it in the U.S. I think things are going to stay tight.”
Prices rose earlier in the week due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil export terminals, but reports of talks between Ukraine’s European allies about a possible ceasefire helped tamp down prices, Flynn said.
U.S. crude inventories for the week ending August 22 showed higher-than-expected draws, implying late-summer demand was still firm, particularly in industrial and freight-related sectors, analyst Ole Hvalbye at SEB bank said in a note.
Investors are also watching for India’s response to pressure from the United States to stop buying Russian oil, after Trump double dtariffs on imports from India to as much as 50% on Wednesday.
So far, India has defied the U.S. and Russian oil exports to India are set to rise in September, traders said.
“The prevalent view is that Russian sanctions are not forthcoming, and India will ignore U.S. sanction threats and continue buying Russian crude oil at heavily discounted prices,” PVM’s Varga said.
Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Seher Dareen in London, Yuka Obayashi and Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Jan Harvey, Nia Williams and Diane Craft
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