Citi expects Brent crude to decline further to an average $60 per barrel over the first quarter of the new year, Reuters has reported, citing the bank as expecting inventories in the OECD to go up further, pressuring benchmarks.
This is Citi’s bearish case for oil, while its base case for the international benchmark is for an average price of $62 for full 2026. The bullish case, “with realized geopolitical supply disruptions” sees Brent crude going up to an average $75 per barrel over 2026. The full-2026 bearish scenario sees Brent crude averaging $50 over next year, on the back of “geopolitical dealmaking, less China buying, [and] more OPEC+ supply ahead of the U.S. midterms.”
With regard to OPEC+, Citi analysts said the group may extend the pause on production cut rollbacks amid the projected supply overhang next year, possibly even into 2027, to keep a floor under prices.
The forecast comes on the heels of a Bloomberg report citing analysts as expecting China to continue to buy oil at elevated rates for stockpiling, which, the publication wrote, would “mask” weakening global demand.
Oil prices, meanwhile, ticked higher on Wednesday after the United States seized a sanctioned tanker off the coast of Venezuela, prompting fears of disruption in case the U.S. escalates further. The Venezuelan government denounced the seizure, calling it “a blatant theft” and an act of “international piracy.”
Today, however, prices retreated, with Brent crude trading at $61.95 per barrel at the time of writing, and West Texas Intermediate changing hands for $58.24 per barrel.
“The oil market is moving deeper into the expected oil glut,” ING commodity analysts said, adding that the pressure on prices would increase in 2026. “However, Russian oil supply remains a risk. While Russian seaborne export volumes are holding up well, these barrels are struggling to find buyers,” Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote, noting Urals would need to get cheaper to find buyers.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com
- U.S. Solar Installations Soar as Developers Rush to Secure Tax Credits
- Eni’s Indonesia Strategy Pays Off with Major Gas Discovery
- EIA: US Crude Inventories Sag As Oil Products Grow
