Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are set to be major drivers of non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2026, accounting for half of the expected 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) increase in 2026 the U.S. Energy Information Administration has predicted. According to the energy watchdog, Brazil’s growth will mainly be driven by new offshore pre-salt projects coming online, including the start-up of Equinor’s (NYSE:EQNR) Bacalhau field in October as well as the start-up of two additional FPSOs by Petrobras in December. EIA has projected a 0.2 mb/d increase in production by Brazil in 2026 to 4.0 mb/d.
In Guyana, rapid development of the Stabroek Block by Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and its partners is pushing production to new highs, with potential for over 1 million barrels per day (bpd) as new FPSOs (Yellowtail, Uaru, Whiptail) come online. Exxon’s Yellowtail project has already attained full production capacity, pushing Guyana’s production to more than 900,000 b/d. Guyana is increasingly exporting crude to Asian markets.
Meanwhile, the start-up of the Uaru project in 2026 will add another 250,000 b/d of supply, helping push Guyana’s crude oil production past 1.0 million b/d by 2027.
EIA has also forecast significant precision growth by Argentina in 2026, mainly driven by its massive Vaca Muerta shale reserves. Argentina’s oil production is expected to average 810,000 b/d in 2026, up from 740,000 b/d in 2025 and 670,000 b/d in 2024.
Last month, Rystad predicted that oil from offshore Brazil, Guyana, Suriname, and Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play will be key sources of cost-competitive non-OPEC oil supply through 2030. Rystad predicted that global liquids demand will peak in the 2030s at around 107 million barrels per day (bpd), maintain a plateau above 100 million bpd through the 2040s before declining to around 75 million bpd by 2050.
According to the Norwegian energy consultancy, non-OPEC+ supply will be key to balancing the global market, with cheap oil from South America helping to offset slower U.S. shale growth. Non-OPEC+ producers are expected to account for around 5.9 million bpd, or nearly 60%, of new conventional oil currently under development through 2030 (total new capacity). South America will be the main source of this supply growth at 560,000 bpd of crude and condensate, with North America supplying ~480,000 bpd.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
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