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US Crude Output to Ease in 2026, While Demand Remains Flat, Says EIA Data

Business & Policy
January 14, 2026

(Reuters) – U.S. crude production will ease in 2026 and 2027 after reaching a record high in 2025, while petroleum demand will hold steady this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.

EIA projected crude production will slide to 13.59 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 and 13.25 million bpd in 2027, down from a record 13.61 million bpd in 2025.

The agency also projected petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption would hold at 20.61 million bpd in 2026, the same as 2025, before rising to 20.69 million bpd in 2027.

That compares with a record 20.80 million bpd in 2005, according to EIA data going back to 1973.

Reporting by Scott DiSavino and Liz Hampton