OPEC Boosts Oil Exports to India as Russian Flows Slump

The share of OPEC crude oil in India’s import mix surged to the highest in 11 months in December as Russian shipments dropped to the lowest in two years on the latest U.S. sanctions.

Reuters reported, citing trade data, that the share of OPEC crude in India’s imports went up to 53.25 of the total, while Russian oil flows dropped by 22% to 1.38 million barrels daily, to represent 27.4% of total Indian oil imports. A big chunk of the decline came from Reliance Industries’ suspension of purchases from sanctioned Rosneft, with which the Indian company has a long-term supply deal.

Even so, on an individual basis, Russia remained the largest supplier of crude oil to India, followed by Iraq at number two and Saudi Arabia at number three in December, as Indian state-owned oil companies switched to buying crude from non-sanctioned Russian companies.

Russian oil flows to India are likely to remain relatively strong, at between 1.2 million barrels daily and 1.4 million barrels daily, Kpler analyst Sumit Ritola said, as quoted by Reuters.

Over 2025, per the data, the share of OPEC crude in Indian imports ticked up from 49% a year earlier to 50%, while Russia’s share declined from 36% in 2024 to 33%.

Earlier this week, Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air reported that Russian oil flows to India had dropped by 29% on the month in December, while exports to China went up by 23% on November. Oil exports to China in December drove an 11% increase in total Russian exports, CREA noted in its report, even as shipments to India fell to the lowest since the G7 imposition of a price cap on Russian oil shipments insured at Western companies. The decline, however, was a lot more modest than a Bloomebrg prediction that Russian flows to India could slump to just 800,000 barrels daily in December because of the new sanctions.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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