OPEC+ is likely to consider increasing oil output by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for April 2026, ending a three-month pause in hikes as they prepare for peak summer demand and navigate market share strategies, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday ahead of a scheduled cartel meeting on March 1.
The group had previously implemented 137,000 bpd hikes in late 2025 before pausing increases for the first quarter of 2026 in a bid to avoid creating a supply surplus.
Unwinding previous output cuts will allow key members such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE to claw back some market share at a time when oil prices are supported by ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
Oil prices have been surging in response to growing U.S.-Iran tensions, with Brent crude jumping to a seven-month high above $71 per barrel. Fears of military action and potential supply disruptions have triggered volatility despite broader, ongoing concerns about a global oil surplus.
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The tensions have added a $3–$4 per barrel risk premium to U.S. crude prices; however, analysts have warned that oil prices could move higher if conflicts move from rhetoric to action.
Analysts from Barclays see prices jumping to the $80 per barrel range in a scenario where the U.S. targets military or government leadership but avoids strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure.
Rystad Energy sees a temporary spike of $10 to $15 per barrel in a wider but not catastrophic conflict if an attack is short-lived and does not cause major supply interruptions. Barclays, however, has predicted that strikes targeting Iranian production fields or export terminals could drive prices towards $100 per barrel.
Last year, JPMorgan predicted an oil price spike to $130 in a “worst-case scenario” if Iran blockades vital chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is considered the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, with ~20-30% of global seaborne oil passing through it everyday. The chokepoint is the only direct maritime link from the Persian Gulf to the open sea, making it vital for exporting oil from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE to Asia and the rest of the world.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
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