U.S. Crude Daily Average Production Falls in December as Bakken Leads Pullback

Average daily crude oil production in the United States eased in December to the lowest daily production rate in months, according to the latest EIA data. Total December production, however, was higher than in November.

According to the EIA, U.S. crude oil output averaged 13.655 million barrels per day in December, down from 13.788 million in November and the lowest daily average since June 2025.

The dip from November to December was modest at the national level — roughly 1% — but some regions saw sharper percentage declines. The steepest drop came from North Dakota, where production fell from 1.168 million barrels per day to 1.092 million (-6.5%). Ohio followed with a roughly 6% slide, while Louisiana posted a 3% drop. Texas slipped less than half a percent.

By contrast, Alaska’s average production continued climbing, rising from 428,000 to 433,000 barrels per day. Federal Gulf of Mexico output rebounded from 1.953 million bpd to 1.996 million bpd.

The broader picture isn’t nearly as dramatic as some framing implies. Production remains elevated by any historical standard, still hovering around record territory above 13.6 million bpd. December’s average daily production is still nearly 200,000 bpd above December 2024’s average, and above every month except the previous five. What December shows is moderation, particularly in the Bakken and parts of PADD 2.

The December slowdown aligns with softer pricing in late autumn. WTI spent much of November and December in the mid-to-high $60s before firming again early this year. For shale producers—especially shale producers in higher-cost basins like the Bakken—that price band is enough to sustain production, but it might not be enough to increase it. The data suggests that as 2025 came to an end, operators leaned toward maintenance rather than expansion.

A one-month dip in daily averages does not signal structural decline. It reflects a mature shale sector responding to price signals in real time. If crude holds above $70 through the first quarter, the December softness may prove temporary.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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