Brent Crude is expected to average above $100 per barrel this year if the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly shut to tanker traffic for another month, Goldman Sachs analysts said on Thursday.
“We continue to see the risks to our price forecast as skewed to the upside,” the U.S. investment bank said in a note carried by Bloomberg after the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday night.
Goldman cut its price expectations for crude oil late on Wednesday following the news of a ceasefire deal between Iran and the United States.
However, the bank has assumed various scenarios in its price forecasts.
One is the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed to normal traffic for another month. This would mean that Brent Crude prices would average more than $100 per barrel in the second half of 2026 and throughout the year, according to Goldman.
Despite the ceasefire, which is conditional on the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran continues to keep control of the vessel flows and controls who can and cannot transit the chokepoint.
Shipowners and shipping lines continue to wait for details and clarity about security guarantees before attempting to move through the Strait of Hormuz.
The lack of details and mounting evidence that Iran is unlikely to loosen its control over the chokepoint during the ceasefire, if it holds, prompted a rebound in oil prices early on Thursday.
Both benchmarks were rising by 3% in early European trade and trading at about $97 per barrel, after Brent closed the gap to WTI, which had traded at a premium for the past week.
“Coordination with Iranian armed forces is still required for all transits,” maritime intelligence firm Windward said on Wednesday, noting that “The strait has not reopened — it is in a supervised pause.”
If the severely limited traffic at the Strait of Hormuz continues for longer than another month, this would lead to additional loss of upstream production in the Middle East. In this case, Brent Crude prices could average $120 per barrel in the third quarter and $115 in the final quarter of the year, according to Goldman Sachs.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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