Iran may halt its own oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz for several days.
Tehran is weighing a short-term pause to avoid testing the U.S. naval blockade just days before another round of ceasefire talks. The objective is to get through the next week without a maritime incident that derails negotiations before they start.
Iran has been one of the only countries still moving crude through Hormuz during the conflict. Most non-Iranian shipping has already pulled back, with U.S. naval enforcement tightening the choke point. That leaves a thin stream of barrels still moving.
If those flows stop, even briefly, the physical market tightens further, as there is no slack in the system right now.
Futures didn’t trade it that way. Brent fell about $1.55 to just below $98 per barrel on the headline. The paper market is focused on the possibility that talks hold and flows normalize, not on the immediate loss of supply. Australia-based ANZ bank said Brent will remain above $90 for the rest of the year, saying that the “worst-case scenario” was no longer needed to justify these higher price predictions.
That split is widening and physical barrels are scarce. The forward curve is leaning on the assumption that scarcity won’t last.
Iran’s calculus is not fixed. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could still test the blockade to show it can be challenged without consequence. That could tighten flows immediately and push risk premiums back into the front of the curve.
For now, Tehran appears to be prioritizing control, and a pause lowers the chance of escalation while talks are still on the table.
The market is tracking tanker movements cargo by cargo. Every cargo that doesn’t move shows up in balances. And right now, balances are already tight.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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