As the end of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire nears, another tanker has tried to pass the Strait of Hormuz, along with two cargo vessels, according to a Bloomberg report that noted the U.S. Navy had so far made two Iranian vessel seizures in the area.
Only one of the vessels—a container ship—carries the Iranian flag. One of the others is sailing under a Ghana flag, and the tanker has no identified owner. It appears that all three have traversed the Strait of Hormuz and are heading into the Gulf of Oman.
Meanwhile, oil prices dropped today on expectations of productive peace talks, after jumping on Monday after Iran issued a statement reversing its earlier announcement that the Strait of Hormuz was open for business. That second statement, for its part, was prompted by the fact that the U.S. kept its blockade on Iranian maritime traffic in the area.
Commenting on the latest price developments, ING’s commodity team cautioned that “While energy markets popped higher yesterday following Iran’s decision to reverse its opening of the Strait of Hormuz, they’re still trading in a manner which suggests optimism over US-Iran talks.”
Optimism is understandable enough, but “we believe markets are underpricing the ongoing supply disruption. Optimism appears to be clouding the reality of the supply shock,” ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote.
Citi analysts appeared more optimistic. “We continue to lean toward an MOU being signed and/or the ceasefire being extended this week, potentially evolving into a broader agreement,” they wrote this week, as quoted by Reuters.
The optimism comes despite a warning issued by Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who said the U.S. was violating the ceasefire and its continued blockade of Hormuz was not conducive to an agreement, either. The ceasefire ends at midnight GMT tomorrow.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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