In a market update sent to Rigzone late Wednesday, Rystad Energy estimated that if U.S.-Iran “hostilities were to resume in earnest”, oil prices could “move towards $150 per barrel”.
“At this stage, it is too early to say whether the current escalation marks a full resumption of hostilities or a dangerous but still containable episode,” Jorge Leon, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said in the update.
“That uncertainty is also reflected in today’s [Wednesday] oil price action, with Brent front-month prices rising sharply to around $94.5 per barrel before easing back closer to $93 per barrel,” he added.
In the update, Leon warned that the probability of a near-term deal has narrowed from Rystad’s prior assessment of around 40 percent a few weeks ago.
“The direction of travel is now more uncertain, and the next few days will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can reassert itself or whether the conflict moves into a more sustained escalation cycle,” he said.
“As a result, oil price volatility is likely to remain elevated until there is clearer evidence that the ceasefire can hold or that diplomatic channels are regaining traction,” he noted.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone today, SEB Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop highlighted that Brent briefly touched below the $90 per barrel line on Tuesday and yesterday traded in a range of $90.77-95.00 per barrel before closing with a daily gain of 1.8 percent at $93.1 per barrel “on the back of renewed hostilities in the Persian Gulf”.
“This morning it has traded as high as $95.5 per barrel but is has not yet found bullish momentum and currently trades at $93.5 per barrel and just marginally higher than the close yesterday,” Schieldrop added.
In this report, Schieldrop said there are no signs that a U.S.-Iran deal is imminent and noted that “it is difficult to understand what is really going on inside Iran and the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran”. He also pointed out that Polymarket bets in the U.S. are now at just 27 percent for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by July 31.
“Reopening here only means ‘one week with average transits of 60 ships per day or more’,” Schieldrop highlighted in the report.
“Normal transits are closer to 135. So, a 27 percent chance in that transits reach just half the normal rate, and it doesn’t need to be permanent. Just one week or more. So, the bar is not even very high,” he added.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Thursday, Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, said U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments are directly feeding oil volatility.
“His remarks about hitting Iran again, demanding a stronger Iran deal, and confirming U.S. military support for oil movement through Hormuz create two opposing market forces,” Aslam noted in the analysis.
“On one side, strike risk supports crude prices because traders fear supply disruption. On the other side, comments around U.S. control and military support for oil movement can cap panic buying if the market believes barrels will keep flowing,” he added.
“At Zaye Capital Markets, we see this as the main reason oil is swinging rather than moving in a straight line,” he continued.
Rigzone has contacted the White House and the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on the Rystad market update and Schieldrop and Aslam’s statements. At the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.
Enverus subsidiary Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) argued in its latest outlook that “the market’s focus on diplomacy risks underestimating the inventory damage already incurred from the Strait of Hormuz disruption”, a statement sent to Rigzone by Enverus yesterday outlined.
That statement noted that EIR’s balance modeling shows OECD crude and product stocks drawing sharply through 2026, “with inventories falling from 2.82 billion barrels at year-end 2025 to a 2.36 billion barrels trough in Q4 2026”. That’s a development that EIR characterizes as “an unprecedented 20 year low”, the statement highlighted.
In EIR’s base case, Brent averages $110 per barrel in the second half of the year, peaks near $117 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and does not fall below $100 per barrel until the third quarter of next year, with year-end 2027 “settling only in the mid-$90s as flows normalize and the rebuild begins”, the statement pointed out.
EIR director Al Salazar said in the statement, “the key takeaway in our modeling is that the inventory ‘stock hole’ can outlast the headline”.
“Even if diplomacy advances, OECD stocks are projected to bottom at levels that historically correlate with stronger prices,” he added.
“Furthermore, we think the crisis likely leaves behind a more durable geopolitical premium that doesn’t fully get unpriced,” he warned.
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