During a press meeting in Ankara, Türkiye, where he is attending the 2026 NATO Summit, U.S. President Donald Trump said he thought the ceasefire with Iran was over.
“To me, I think it’s over,” Trump said at the meeting, a video posted on Rapid Response 47’s X page, which was reposted by the White House X page, showed.
“I don’t want to deal with them anymore … I’ll speak to our negotiators. They want to negotiate – they’re good people … but they have to come back to me. As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them,” he added.
At the time of writing, oil prices are rising more than six percent.
In a market quick take posted on Saxo Bank’s website earlier today, the bank noted that oil rose after the U.S. struck targets in Iran and revoked a waiver allowing new sales of Iranian oil, in retaliation for Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
“The escalation threatens fragile negotiations aimed at securing a permanent peace, with both sides accusing the other of violating the ceasefire,” Saxo Bank said in the statement.
“Three commercial vessels were attacked in the Strait over the past day, the most since the agreement took effect, with the U.S. blaming Iran for the strikes. Brent has moved back above $76, potentially triggering further short covering among hedge funds,” it added.
Rigzone has asked the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs if Iran was responsible for the recent attacks on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, the ministry has not responded to Rigzone.
Standard Chartered Bank Energy Research Head Emily Ashford told Rigzone that attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz over the past few days have highlighted once more that the transit remains dangerous and that a return to business as usual remains a long way off.
“The U.S. launched strikes on Iran yesterday and revoked its license to sell oil under the 60-day negotiation window sanctions waiver,” Ashford highlighted, adding that, “in retaliation, Iran is targeting U.S. military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait”.
“The market was so short that these escalations can be … quite brutal for prices, with crude rallying (although still at a $50 per barrel discount from the highs earlier in the conflict),” Ashford continued.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone today, Waleed Said, Technical Analyst at GivTrade, said oil prices are rising today because supply risk is back in control.
“Brent near $76 and WTI near $72 show traders are rebuilding the Middle East risk premium as concerns grow around Iran, shipping security, and the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.
“Fed minutes matter for the dollar and demand outlook, but today’s oil move is mainly about one thing: markets are pricing possible disruption before disruption actually happens,” he continued.
Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, noted in another market analysis sent to Rigzone today that West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures and ICE Brent futures were hovering at their highest levels in two weeks.
“The return of rising oil prices comes as the market once again recognizes the fragility of the current ceasefire and that the war in the Middle East has not ended, while the risks of oil supply disruptions remain high and the diplomatic path to settlement is still very long,” Hasn said in the analysis.
“We were previously discussing that the current truce is fragile and liable to collapse at any moment, but the renewal of fighting at a high pace in the midst of the funeral of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei took us by surprise,” he added.
“We witnessed a return to targeting commercial ships in the strait, widespread U.S. strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets, in addition to targeting U.S. bases in the Gulf. Furthermore, the U.S. Treasury Department revoked the license that allowed the purchase of Iranian oil,” he continued.
“This escalation is the first of its kind since the signing of the memorandum of understanding,” he went on to state.
Hasn noted, however, that “the nature of these attacks and skirmishes is less important than what lies behind them” and said he believes the market “needs to recognize this”.
“This wave of escalation began with the targeting of commercial ships attempting to cross the southern path of the Strait of Hormuz, which passes through Omani waters, without coordination with the Iranian side,” he highlighted.
“The latter views this as a violation of the signed agreement and as a challenge to its attempt to impose dominance over the Strait,” he added.
“This, in turn, confirms something dangerous: the recent rounds of negotiations over the memorandum of understanding did not yield any breakthrough, even on the technical details of managing the strait,” he warned.
“Worse still, the failure to achieve a breakthrough regarding the strait means that the possibility of reaching an agreement on the most vital points, which relate to the Iranian nuclear program, will be much harder and will take a very long time, if there is any possibility of reaching an agreement at all under the current U.S. administration,” he continued.
Hasn went on to warn in the analysis that, “amid this narrative and the absence of a near-term outlook for a comprehensive diplomatic settlement, the risks of a return to the total closure of the strait, or even the retargeting of vital energy facilities across the region, whether on the Iranian or Gulf side, remain high”.
“This threatens a sudden spike in oil prices. Furthermore, this narrative will keep the OPEC+ decision to increase oil production on paper and unenforceable for now; in this case, the market will remain in a state of supply deficit, keeping prices vulnerable to rise,” he added.
Hasn did also state in the analysis though, that, “if we want to be a bit optimistic, it is not unlikely that we could witness a sudden breakthrough regarding the return of ships and oil tankers crossing the strait, or even the lifting of restrictions again on Iranian oil exports”.
“This is for a single reason: the United States and President Donald Trump do not have enough time to engage in this war for long, with the midterm elections approaching and the average price of a gallon of gasoline remaining near $4 per gallon,” he said.
“In this scenario, an OPEC+ hike might prove effective over time, lowering prices more quickly,” he added.
In a brief statement posted on its website on Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control said it was “revoking Iran-related General License X and issuing Iran-related General License X1, for the ‘Revocation and Wind Down of June 21, 2026 Authorization for the Production, Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil, Petrochemical Products, and Petroleum Products of Iranian Origin’”.
“Effective July 7, 2026, General License X, dated June 21, 2026, is replaced and superseded in its entirety by this General License X1,” it added.
In a statement posted on its website, which was translated from Farsi, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it “strongly condemns the U.S. Treasury’s move to lift the temporary suspension of the embargo on Iranian oil sales”.
U.S. Central Command said in a statement posted on its X page yesterday that its forces had begun launching “a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway”.
“The U.S. strikes are in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire,” it added.
In a statement posted on his X page earlier today, the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, flagged “major MOU Violations by the United States”, offering the following as some examples – “Violating Iranian adjustments in the Strait, Persistent threats of further strikes, Reinstating oil sanctions, [and] Attacks on southern Iran”.
“The era of bullying and extortion is over. It leads nowhere. We don’t fold,” Ghalibaf said in the statement.
Inki Cho, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness, highlighted in a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Tuesday that oil prices were rising “after reports that a tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz”.
“The episode raised doubts over the durability of the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran as well as the conditions along the strategically important waterway,” Cho added in the analysis.
“Despite today’s gains, oil prices remained at their lowest in months, close to the levels seen before tensions in the region started,” Cho continued.
In this analysis, Cho pointed out that Gulf producers were continuing to increase output, “adding to downward pressure on prices”.
“OPEC+ agreed over the weekend to raise August quotas, reinforcing expectations of a well-supplied market through the second half of the year,” Cho added.
Looking ahead in the analysis, Cho projected that oil markets “are likely to stay highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the outcome of this week’s U.S.-Iran talks”.
“Any confirmation that shipping remains unaffected, or further progress in negotiations, could push prices down, while an escalation or a breakdown in talks could quickly fuel a rebound in crude,” Cho warned.
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