The European Commission’s decision to prohibit photovoltaic (PV) inverters and power conversion systems (PCS) sourced from China and other countries classified as high risk from European Union-funded clean energy projects could affect more than 28 GWdc of solar PV inverter demand between 2026 and 2030, according to a new analysis by Wood Mackenzie.
The research estimates that the restrictions could impact approximately 14% of forecast European solar PV demand over the five-year period. In the energy storage sector, around 12% of projected deployments could also be affected, with utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) expected to face the greatest exposure.
The move is aimed at reducing reliance on Chinese suppliers, which accounted for more than 80% of inverter shipments to Europe in 2025, according to Wood Mackenzie. The impact is expected to be most significant in Central and Eastern European markets, including Romania, Bulgaria, Czechia, the Baltic states and Greece, where EU-funded renewable energy projects are more common.
Wood Mackenzie noted that the European Commission has also encouraged EU Member States to apply similar restrictions to renewable energy projects financed through national budgets. If adopted, the scope of the ban would expand significantly beyond EU-funded projects, increasing the volume of affected solar and energy storage capacity.
While European-manufactured inverters generally carry higher costs than Chinese alternatives, the analysis estimates that the overall increase in total project costs would remain relatively modest, ranging between 2% and 8%, depending on the project segment.
However, Wood Mackenzie said developers could face additional challenges beyond higher equipment costs, including procurement delays, project redesigns and the separation of integrated battery-inverter systems.
“Cost is not the only disruptive factor. Procurement complications, design changes and the forced unbundling of integrated battery-inverter systems present additional challenges, particularly in price-sensitive Eastern European markets,” said Joe Shangraw, Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
According to the report, the restrictions could also affect utility-scale renewable energy projects outside the European Union, including those in North Africa, the Middle East and the Caspian region, where projects receive institutional financing from the EU.
Wood Mackenzie further noted that proposed amendments to the EU Cybersecurity Act could broaden the restrictions to include all solar PV inverters and energy storage power conversion systems, regardless of the project’s funding source, significantly expanding the policy’s impact across the European renewable energy market.
“This ban represents a meaningful shift, with around 4 GW to 5 GW of annual demand moving away from Chinese vendors through 2030. However, around 80% of European solar and storage demand is still financed through private and national funding channels, where Chinese suppliers are expected to remain dominant unless additional restrictions are introduced,” said Juan Monge, Principal Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
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