In a statement posted on its site recently, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that it was maintaining its prediction for a “below-normal” Atlantic hurricane season.
“With the climatological peak of hurricane season approaching in early September, NOAA’s prediction for below-normal activity in the Atlantic basin remains,” NOAA said in its statement.
NOAA revealed in the statement that its forecasters were predicting a 75 percent chance for “below-normal” activity, a 20 percent chance of a “near-normal” season, and a five percent chance of “above-normal” activity. It noted that this updated prediction was similar to its initial outlook issued in May.
In that outlook, NOAA predicted a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above normal season.
NOAA highlighted in its latest statement that forecasters from its National Weather Service had updated the number of expected named storms to 7-13. Of these, two to six could become hurricanes, including zero to two major hurricanes, the statement noted.
“These ranges cover the entire season from June 1 through November 30 and are inclusive of the two tropical storms that have already formed,” NOAA pointed out in its statement.
NOAA’s previous prediction back in May saw a total of 8-14 named storms. Of those, three to six were forecast to become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes. In that statement, NOAA said it had a 70 percent confidence in those ranges.
The organization highlighted in its latest statement that, in the Atlantic basin, a typical hurricane season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Gulf Storms
NOAA outlined in its statement that, at the time of its latest prediction, the 2026 season had produced two named tropical storms – Arthur and Bertha – and no hurricanes.
“Tropical Storm Arthur was the first named storm of the Atlantic season,” NOAA pointed out.
“Forming in mid-June in the warm Gulf of America waters off the Texas coast, Arthur brought record rainfall to portions of Louisiana and spawned tornadoes along the Gulf coast,” it added.
“Bertha also formed in the Gulf, originating south of the Florida panhandle before making landfall in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana,” it continued.
At the time of writing, Earth Science Associates’ (ESA) GOMsmart platform projected mean production losses of 7.450 million barrels of oil and 10.290 billion cubic feet of gas as a result of Bertha. The platform projected mean production losses of 10,000 barrels of oil and 60.0 million cubic feet of gas as a result of Arthur.
ESA’s website highlights that its GOMsmart platform forecasts production lost based on the path, strength, and speed of a storm impacting platforms in the Gulf. Last month, an ESA spokesperson told Rigzone that ESA is a “leading provider of data and analytic tools to the companies that produce oil and gas in the Gulf”, adding that its clients are responsible for over 85 percent of the basin’s hydrocarbons.
Atlantic weather systems have severely affected oil and gas operations in the Gulf in the past. For example, at its peak, on August 29, 2021, and 94.47 percent of gas production on August 31, 2021, U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) figures revealed.
Season Remainder, El Nino
In its latest statement, NOAA said that, for the remainder of the season, tropical storm activity in the Atlantic basin is expected to be tempered by El Nino conditions, which it highlighted first emerged in the equatorial Pacific in June.
“El Nino increases wind shear, which tends to prevent tropical storms from forming or from getting stronger once formed,” NOAA noted in its statement.
“Other less influential factors include temperatures near average in the Atlantic Ocean and a neutral west African monsoon,” it added.
Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Weather Service, said in NOAA’s statement, “when El Nino emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Nino continues to get stronger every month”.
“Compared to a mature El Nino, other mechanisms play a smaller role in determining the number and intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin,” he added.
At the time of writing, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking three weather disturbances in the Atlantic. One of these had a 10 percent chance of cyclone formation within seven days, as of 2am EDT on August 11, another also had a 10 percent chance of cyclone formation within seven days, as of 2am EDT on August 11, and another had a 70 percent chance of cyclone formation within seven days, as of 2am EDT on August 11, the NHC site showed.
Other Basins
Although El Nino tends to limit tropical activity in the Atlantic, it can enhance storm development in the Pacific, NOAA warned in its statement.
The organization highlighted that its outlook for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season remains unchanged with 15-22 named storms, which it noted is above average.
“So far there have been seven named storms, of which two became hurricanes, including one major hurricane,” NOAA said in the statement.
“An above-normal season is also expected in the Central Pacific basin, with 5-13 named storms and tropical depressions,” it added.
NOAA states on its site that its hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity. It highlights that it is not a landfall forecast.
“Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching land,” NOAA says on its site.
According to its website, NOAA’s mission is to “understand and predict changes in climate, weather, ocean, and coasts, to share that knowledge and information with others, and to conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources”.
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