Refiners are set to reap stronger profits on the global diesel shortage, Goldman Sachs has said, revising its earlier profit forecast to double the total profits that refining companies would make from the squeeze.
“Rising strikes on refineries in the Middle East and Russia have further constrained already-stretched global refining capacity, pushing refined-products margins to new highs,” the bank’s analysts wrote in a note, as quoted by Bloomberg. “Diesel remains at the epicenter of the rally,” they added
Global diesel stocks are running low due to refinery damage in the Middle East and Russia. According to Goldman’s commodity team, refinery outages are currently 60% higher than the seasonal average, and the tightness in diesel will extend into next year.
Fuel exports from the Persian Gulf are running at some 40% of pre-war levels, the analysts also said, compared to an estimated 70-80% for crude oil exports.
As a result, Goldman now expects refining margins for diesel to reach $63 per barrel in the United States in 2027, and for refiners in the European Union, the margin is seen averaging $49 per barrel. That’s up from an earlier profit forecast of $27 per barrel for U.S. refiners and $19 per barrel for European Union refiners.
In Europe, the situation is additionally complicated by a shortage of refineries, as EU climate regulations forced energy companies to shut down refining capacity in anticipation of demand destruction that has yet to materialize.
Meanwhile, several refineries in the Middle East have suffered damage amid the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran, and Russia has instituted a diesel export ban because of a squeeze on production from Ukrainian drone attacks. Moscow recently extended the ban on diesel exports until the end of September.
Refinery margins are running at record highs across the world as the energy crisis unfolds. In the United States, the crack spread hit three digits for the first time ever earlier this month.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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