Crude oil exports from the Middle East have recovered almost fully to pre-war levels, according to JP Morgan, which also said fuel exports were ramping up.
The bank’s analysts saw September daily oil flows at an average of 17.5 million barrels daily, or 98% of pre-war levels, with fuel exports at 3 million barrels daily, or 58% of pre-war daily average levels, Bloomberg reported, citing JP Morgan’s commodity analysts.
“The Middle East’s oil export arteries are flowing again,” the team said in a note Thursday. This was “a remarkable recovery for a region still at war,” they noted. Earlier September estimates about Middle East oil flows from Kpler saw these at between 12.8 million barrels daily and 13.2 million barrels daily.
Oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz specifically have “returned to late-June highs of nearly 13 million barrels a day, led primarily by Saudi Arabia,” JP Morgan’s commodity analysts also said. “But higher crossings should not be mistaken for improved safety — rather, they reflect the industry’s increasing ability to operate under sustained risk.”
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Goldman Sachs went was more optimistic, estimating oil outflows in the Persian Gulf at 23.3 million barrels daily, which is on par with 2025 daily averages. The bank said this includes tankers sailing in dark mode to avoid detection.
“We note a divergence between the fall of Iranian exports and the rise of exports of other Persian Gulf producers,” Goldman’s commodity analysts said, as quoted by Bloomberg. “Saudi estimated exports more than doubled in September and rose above their 2025 average.”
Not all estimates of Hormuz oil flows are so optimistic. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, for instance, estimated oil exports from the Persian Gulf at 17 million barrels daily but only “sometimes”. The chief executive of TotalEnergies, meanwhile, said the company’s calculations showed average daily exports via Hormuz of 10 million barrels.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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