India’s fuel demand for road transportation is nearly a decade away from peaking despite rising sales of electric two- and three-wheelers, as commercial transport and conventional fleets will keep using greater volumes of gasoline and diesel, BloombergNEF has said.
India’s fuel demand for road transportation is expected to peak at above 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2034, research firm BloombergNEF said in its India Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026.
India’s rising road fuel demand could sustain global oil demand growth for longer than growth in China, where gasoline and diesel consumption has dropped this year amid demand destruction from higher oil prices and the acceleration of electric vehicle adoption.
However, India’s electric vehicle (EV) sales are lagging behind 2030 targets, and the country will need as much as $29 billion of investment in charging infrastructure by 2040 to accelerate the adoption of EVs beyond two- and three-wheelers, according to BloombergNEF.
In the India Transition Factbook 2026 published last month, BloombergNEF noted that Indian EV sales are rising but the country is far from reaching most of its 2030 targets.
While lower total cost of ownership, greater model availability, and a sustained policy push are helping boost Indian EV sales, only three-wheeler EV sales are likely to hit the government targets.
These goals are for EVs to account for 80% of two- and three-wheeler sales by the end of the decade, 70% of commercial vehicles to be EVs, and 30% of passenger vehicles to be electric.
“However, BNEF modeling suggests India will fall short of most of these goals, with three-wheelers the exception,” BNEF said in October.
“Higher fuel costs stemming from the conflict in the Persian Gulf could improve the economics of EVs, but further measures will be needed if the country is to hit all of its 2030 targets.”
Despite being the second-largest car market in the Asia Pacific region, India’s electric car sales have remained modest, with sales starting to pick up only now, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Global EV Outlook 2026.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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