China is not expected to materially boost its crude oil imports through the end of the year as oil prices surged above $100 per barrel again and independent refiners struggle to procure cheaper supply amid the near-disappearance of Iranian barrels.
China is on track to import roughly the same volumes of crude oil in September as it did in August, extending the trend of recovering shipments. However, the September-arriving cargoes were bought at oil prices in the $80s before the latest re-escalation in early September sent and kept Brent above $100 per barrel.
China’s crude oil imports rose for the second consecutive month in August as refiners turned to additional non-Middle Eastern supply and boosted overseas fuel shipments amid eased export restrictions.
The August import level was still 23.4% lower compared to the same month last year, but it’s a marked improvement from the June lows of just 7.1 million bpd.
China slashed its total crude oil imports to a decade low in June, culminating three months of very low import levels amid high prices and constrained supply from the Middle East.
September volumes are expected to be more or less around the August levels, but the outlook for the rest of the year has soured as oil is up above $100 per barrel again and the U.S. blockade is effectively eliminating the regular cheap supply on which China’s independent refiners relied for years to remain competitive.
The teapots now could start reducing refinery processing rates as oil prices rise and supply from major exporters such as Venezuela and Iran dries up as a result of U.S. foreign policy decisions.
Chinese state giants are not in a rush to buy much higher volumes of crude at above $100 a barrel with record-high freight costs, either, according to analysts.
“We don’t expect significant upside to China’s crude imports, partly as hefty premiums and expensive freight drive up the cost of feedstock, eroding margins,” Samuel Kong, senior oil analyst at FGE NexantECA, told Bloomberg.
Analysts at FGE NexantECA, as well as at Energy Aspects, have revised down their earlier projections of China’s crude oil imports in the fourth quarter, by about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd). The analysts at these consultancies now expect China’s crude oil imports to be 9.2 million bpd-9.3 million bpd in the fourth quarter, well below last year’s average of 11.6 million bpd.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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