Crude oil prices moved markedly lower on Wednesday and stayed there earlier today, after booking a solid jump for September. The decline came in response to reports from JP Morgan, Goldman, and Kpler, suggesting oil flows out of the Persian Gulf had virtually returned to pre-war levels.
At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $97.36, down from over $103 per barrel yesterday, and West Texas Intermediate was trading at $89.57 per barrel, down from over $90 per barrel.
Earlier in the week, Kpler reported oil export figures close to 80% of pre-war levels for Hormuz, while JP Morgan said it estimates oil exports via the chokepoint as high as 98% of pre-war levels. Goldman trumped both, claiming oil flows out of the Middle East at 23.3 million barrels daily, which is the same rate as the average for 2025.
Not only that, but according to the bank, Saudi Arabia was actually exporting more oil in September this year than it did in September last year. “We note a divergence between the fall of Iranian exports and the rise of exports of other Persian Gulf producers,” Goldman’s commodity analysts said, as quoted by Bloomberg. “Saudi estimated exports more than doubled in September and rose above their 2025 average.”
Meanwhile, reports about Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz that were not picked up by any of the major corporate media but were carried by shipping and insurance media, including Lloyd’s List, failed to have any impact on prices. The attacks were initially reported by the UK Maritime Trade Operations outlet, a regular source for information on attacks in Hormuz.
The ports suggest that even though oil flows out of the Persian Gulf may be improving, thanks to ship-to-ship transfers and alternative routes, safe is still not a word one can use for the region, and this is affecting the cost of those flows that are making it out in greater volumes than before.
By Irina Slavfor Oilprice.com
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