Brent Holds Above $102 as Gulf Export Rebound Offsets U.S. Military Moves

Crude oil prices are set for a modest weekly decline today, as reports of a strong rebound in oil flows out of the Persian Gulf trumped news of more U.S. troops moving to the Middle East and China’s Thursday decision to halt fuel exports this month.

At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $102.24 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate was trading at $92.62. Both benchmarks posted strong gains in September and while the start to October has been lower, if hostilities in the Persian Gulf escalate again, the upward potential will return.

“The market is taking stock of a distinctly mixed set of signals this week,” Reuters quoted KCM Trade chief analyst Tim Waterer as saying. “A healthier-looking Saudi export picture is being offset by reports of another US aircraft carrier heading toward the Gulf and by China’s decision to curb refined product exports,” Waterer also said.

“The US-Israeli war on Iran is difficult to predict. In our base case, we model early November, following the US midterm elections, as the main scenario for an easing of the conflict,” said David Doherty, Head of Natural Resources at BNEF earlier this week.

“However, we think it is highly likely that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade of Iran will persist in some form into the new year. The longer the disruption lasts, the longer it will take for flows to return to normal,” Doherty also said.

The likelihood of the war extending into next year indeed looks quite substantial. President Trump’s latest remarks on Iran support that scenario. “Now I have to make a decision. They’ll ‌either sign a very fair deal, or they won’t exist any longer,” Trump told the media earlier this week following a report by the Wall Street Journal about a third aircraft carrier en route to the Middle East plus some 10,000 troops.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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