Shell, Chevron, and Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) have all issued updates in response to Hurricane Isaias.
In a statement posted on its website on October 7, Shell said it was continuing to monitor Isaias for potential impacts to its assets and operations in the Gulf of America.
“As a precautionary measure at our Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito, and Appomattox assets, we are evacuating all personnel and shutting in production,” the company revealed.
“In addition, we have already moved non-essential personnel from our Stones asset,” it added.
“As always, Shell’s top priority is the safety of our people, the environment, and our assets,” Shell highlighted in the statement.
In a statement posted on its website on October 5, Shell said it was actively monitoring Invest 92L.
“As a precautionary measure at our Stones, Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito, and Appomattox assets, we are evacuating non-essential personnel,” the company revealed in that statement.
“There are currently no other impacts to our operations across the Gulf of America,” it added at the time.
In a statement posted on its website on October 7, Chevron revealed that, in preparation for Isaias, the company had initiated its shut-in procedures for production at four of its operated Gulf of America facilities and that it was evacuating all associated personnel.
“While some additional personnel are being transported onshore, production from our other five Gulf of America facilities remains at normal levels,” Chevron said in its update.
“At our onshore facilities, we continue to follow our established storm response procedures and are closely monitoring the projected path of the storm,” it added.
“Chevron will continue to closely monitor the system and remains focused on the safety of our workforce, the integrity of our facilities, and the protection of the environment,” it continued.
A statement posted on Oxy’s website stated that the company was closely monitoring Isaias as it develops in the Gulf of America.
“Our offshore facilities maintain established severe-weather preparedness plans and we have begun implementing these procedures to protect the safety of our people and the environment,” the statement noted.
Production Losses
At the time of writing, Earth Science Associates’ (ESA) GOMsmart platform projected mean production losses of 9.55 million barrels of oil and 10.03 billion cubic feet of gas as a result of Isaias.
ESA’s latest projections mark a slight reduction to forecasts it was making on Wednesday, when it projected mean production losses of 11.17 million barrels of oil and 13.25 billion cubic feet of gas as a result of Isaias.
The company projected mean production losses of 7.12 million barrels of oil and 9.85 billion cubic feet of gas as a result of Storm Bertha, mean output losses of 10,001 barrels of oil and 80.00 million cubic feet of gas as a result of Edouard, and mean production losses of 10,000 barrels of oil and 60.00 million cubic feet of gas as a result of Arthur.
ESA’s website highlights that its GOMsmart platform forecasts production lost based on the path, strength, and speed of a storm impacting platforms in the Gulf. Back in July, an ESA spokesperson told Rigzone that ESA is a “leading provider of data and analytic tools to the companies that produce oil and gas in the Gulf”, adding that its clients are responsible for over 85 percent of the basin’s hydrocarbons.
A market quick take posted on the Saxo Bank website on Thursday outlined that Isaias had already “forced the shutdown of around 500,000 barrels per day of U.S. production”.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone today, Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, warned that storm risks in the Gulf “add[ed] another layer [to the oil market], because the region accounts for a meaningful share of U.S. crude and gas production”. He noted that any production shutdowns “would tighten near-term supply further”.
Hurricane Isaias
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC) website showed that, as of 4am CDT on October 8, Tropical Storm Isaias had maximum sustained winds of 80 miles per hour, a minimal central pressure of 979 mb, and a nine mile per hour east-north easterly movement.
“Isaias is expected to strengthen and be a strong hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday,” a ‘key message’ for Hurricane Isaias, as of 4am CDT today, posted on the NHC site stated.
“A life-threatening storm surge is expected along a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Steinhatchee, Florida. Residents in the warning area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so,” it added.
“Damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi, and a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Bay/Gulf County Line, Florida. Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages,” it continued.
“Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible,” it went on to state.
Below-Normal Season
In a statement posted on its site recently, NOAA announced that it was maintaining its prediction for a “below-normal” Atlantic hurricane season.
“With the climatological peak of hurricane season approaching in early September, NOAA’s prediction for below-normal activity in the Atlantic basin remains,” NOAA said in that statement.
NOAA revealed in the statement that its forecasters were predicting a 75 percent chance for “below-normal” activity, a 20 percent chance of a “near-normal” season, and a five percent chance of “above-normal” activity. It highlighted that this updated prediction was similar to its initial outlook issued in May.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) October short term energy outlook (STEO), in 2025, total crude oil output in the federal Gulf of America averaged 1.94 million barrels per day and total marketed natural gas production in the federal Gulf of America averaged 1.9 billion cubic feet per day.
The EIA’s latest STEO projected that, in 2026, total crude oil output in the federal Gulf of America will average 2.03 million barrels per day and total marketed natural gas production in the federal Gulf of America will come in at 2.0 billion cubic feet per day.
Atlantic weather systems have severely affected oil and gas operations in the Gulf in the past. For example, at its peak, on August 29, 2021, and 94.47 percent of gas production on August 31, 2021, U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) figures revealed.
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