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18 min ago 2 min read
Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is projected to decrease by 3% in 2026, marking a fall of almost 20 billion cubic metres (bcm), according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Assuming trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain largely disrupted until at least the end of 2026, the IEA projects the decrease will mark the steepest annual decline in LNG supply on record.
In parallel, global gas demand is expected to decline around 1.5%, close to 65 bcm, this year. The IEA said this trend is partially driven by demand destruction in the Middle East.
According to the IEA, LNG loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates declined by over 60 bcm year-on-year from March to October.
The decrease was partially offset by higher LNG output from new projects in North America and Africa, with non-Gulf LNG production increasing by 14% (over 40 bcm) year-on-year between March and October.
In total, global LNG production fell by 6%, or around 20 bcm year-on-year, in the March to October period.
The IEA said destination-flexible LNG contracts have risen from a share of 29% in 2016 to more than 50% in 2025, primarily driven by US supplies.
The organisation said destination-free LNG is helping global markets adjust to the current supply shock amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysis published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that US LNG exports averaged 17.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in the first half (H1) of 2026, up 23% from H1 2025.
The EIA said this represents the since the US started large-scale exports in 2016.
The IEA reports that Asian buyers have been able to double their imports of LNG from the Atlantic Basin year-on-year between March and October, primarily sourcing LNG from the US.
Recently approved North American LNG projects will provide further global supply later in the decade.
In line with this, intelligence firm S&P Global Energy said US LNG export capacity is to double over the next five years, making LNG the country’s second-largest net export industry.
