(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs forecast that Brent and WTI crude prices would be at $62 a barrel and $58 by December 2025 and at $55 and $51 by December 2026, respectively, under two assumptions.
The bank, in a note dated April 7, said that the first assumption is the U.S. economy avoids a recession given a large reduction in tariffs, which are scheduled to take effect on April 9. Second, supply from eight OPEC+ countries rises moderately with two final increments of 130,000-140,000 barrels each in June-July.
However, the bank noted that in a typical U.S. recession and their OPEC baseline scenario, they estimate that Brent would decline to $58 by December 2025, and $50 by December 2026, respectively.
Goldman Sachs said oil prices would likely exceed their forecast under a very sharp reversal in tariff policy.
On Monday, Goldman Sachs revised down its annual average price forecasts again for Brent and WTI crude in 2026, citing increased recession risks and the possibility of higher-than-expected OPEC+ supply.
U.S. President Donald Trumpramped up tariff threats against China on Monday, while the European Union outlined plans for retaliatory duties, deepening fears of a drawn-out trade war that could tip the global economy into recession.
Goldman said in a global GDP slowdown scenario and keeping their OPEC baseline unchanged, Brent was estimated to decline to $54 by December 2025 and to $45 by December 2026.
Goldman estimates that, in a more extreme and less likely scenario where both a global GDP slowdown and a full unwind of OPEC+ cuts occur, which would discipline non-OPEC supply, Brent prices would fall to just under $40 per barrel by late 2026.
Brent crude was trading around $64.72 a barrel, as of 0603 GMT on Tuesday, while WTI was at $61.26.
Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; editing by David Evans
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