Asia is set to import the highest volumes of crude oil in September since February this year, when the Iran war started, crippled supply from the Middle East, and forced buyers in Asia to slash purchases.
Asia is expected to import 23.96 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil this month, per data compiled by Kpler and cited by Reuters’ Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist, Clyde Russell.
The crude imports in September would be higher than the 23.38 million bpd that arrived in the region in August and the highest since February, the month just before the Iran war broke out.
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Despite the rebound, Asian crude oil imports still lag the pre-war levels by about 13%, according to Russell’s estimates.
Purchases from Asian refiners have recovered in recent months from the 10-year lows seen in April and May, when buyers scrambled to arrange alternative supply amid severely constrained flows out of the Strait of Hormuz.
In recent weeks, volumes leaving the Strait of Hormuz have increased compared to the April and May lows, but they still lag behind pre-war levels, while Asia continues to receive much lower Middle East crude volumes than it did at the start of this year.
China, for example, has recovered some of its crude oil imports, but they remain lower than in February. The world’s biggest crude oil buyer imported 8.93 million bpd of crude oil in August, up by 6.2% compared to July, and further recovering from the decade-low seen in June, official Chinese customs data showed earlier this month.
However, the import levels remain about 2 million bpd lower than Chinese imports just before the war.
If the current high prices, with Brent hovering around $100 per barrel, persist, it is unlikely that China would materially raise imports in the fourth quarter, according to a Goldman Sachs note carried by Bloomberg.
China’s crude oil imports are expected to rise by only about 600,000 bpd in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, Goldman’s analysts said.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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