BP expects to have booked an “exceptional” oil trading result for the first quarter of 2026, amid the extreme volatility in prices since the war in the Middle East began.
The UK-based supermajor said on Tuesday in a trading statement that its exceptional oil trading result would compare with weak trading profits for the fourth quarter of 2025.
BP and other supermajors don’t disclose their trading profits but guide the market as to how strong or weak the trading results have been in a given quarter.
BP, which is set to report full first-quarter earnings on April 28, noted in today’s update that all its estimated earnings “include impacts associated with the ongoing situation in the Middle East and the current market conditions resulting in heightened volatility in crude oil, natural gas and refined products prices in the latter part of the first quarter.”
BP warned that these market conditions would also increase the dislocation between marker prices versus actual prices realized by BP in the first quarter, and increase the impact of price lags.
Elsewhere, BP expects flat upstream production compared to the final quarter of 2025, while stronger realized refining margins could boost earning by up to $200 million.
BP’s trading update follows last week’s announcement from its UK-based rival Shell, which said it expects adjusted earnings in marketing and oil trading for the first quarter to be “significantly higher”.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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