Oil traders are pricing a U.S.-Iran settlement and discounting the threats around it. As of 9:40 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Brent had fallen $3.04, or 2.9%, to $100.60 per barrel, its third straight loss, and WTI had dropped $2.86, or 3%, to $93.23. Murban slipped $1.27 to $100.90. Both crude benchmarks traded higher early before reversing in a volatile session.
President Trump told the Financial Times that Washington has no immediate plans to strike Iran. “We seem to be getting everything we want,” he said. Vice President JD Vance said on Monday that the two sides had “certainly made some progress.” A senior Iranian official said Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington meets its demands, including lifting oil sanctions and releasing frozen assets.
Escalation headlines failed to hold prices up. Trump told Fox News a “heavy hit” on Iran was possible. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said four tankers were destroyed by mines south of Hormuz, a claim that has not been independently confirmed. ING said markets have increasingly priced in further hostilities.
Democrats won both houses of Congress in Tuesday’s midterms, and analysts said the result could constrain war funding. Kpler’s Michelle Brouhard noted that the new Congress is not seated until January 3, which leaves the administration nearly two months to act.
Phillip Nova’s Priyanka Sachdeva said profit-taking and reduced speculative long positions were justified after October’s rally. JPMorgan estimated the global oil market’s surplus at 1.4 million bpd in October, up from 1.1 million in September. The bank said Middle East exports had recovered to about 20.7 million bpd from a March low of 9.8 million, and that demand had fallen 3.3 million bpd since the war began.
The selling overrode a 5.27 million-barrel U.S. crude draw reported by the American Petroleum Institute against an expected build, the latest sign that U.S. inventories remain in freefall. The EIA releases its official figures at 10:30 a.m. ET.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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