Chinese crude oil demand will peak by 2030, a new report from the China National Petroleum Corp Economics and Technology Research Institute has predicted, as quoted by China Daily.
According to the research division of the state energy major, the acceleration of a transition from oil to alternative energy sources will be the primary reason for the peak. The vice-president of the Economics and Technology Research Institute noted electric cars specifically as a big driver of the trend, saying the electrification of transport in China was progressing faster than originally expected.
Wu Mouyuan, however, noted that demand for crude oil globally will remain resilient, driven by developing economies and petrochemicals. He added that global oil demand will continue growing for longer than previously expected and peak at a level 5.2% higher than previously forecast, at some 4.8 billion metric tons. One metric ton is equal to around 7.33 barrels of crude. Because of this stronger resilience, peak demand for oil will only occur in 2040 rather than 2030 as previously forecast, Wu said.
In a broader energy demand forecast, the China National Petroleum Corp Economics and Technology Research Institute predicted that primary energy demand in China would peak around 2035 at a level of 5 billion tons. Crude oil will remain a prominent part of the country’s energy mix beyond 2050, the forecasters also said, noting that despite that, the mix will look radically different by 2060.
In petrochemicals specifically, oil demand growth is seen peaking by 2050, at a level of 290 million tons.
In natural gas, the China National Petroleum Corp Economics and Technology Research Institute expects demand to plateau some time between 2035 and 2040 at a level of between 620 and 650 million cu m, even as demand for electricity surges on the back of AI deployment. According to the forecasters, China’s demand for electricity will double between 2025 and 2050, topping 20 trillion kWh.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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