Despite Trump’s full-throttle push to “unleash” U.S. energy, Permian oil producers are keeping their foot on the brakes. At a Houston conference this week, energy executives made it clear that while production is still growing, the breakneck pace of the past decade is history.
In 2025, Permian output is expected to rise by about 250,000 to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from last year’s 380,000-bpd increase. That’s a 25% slowdown, and it’s not just because of market conditions—it’s intentional.
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On Thursday, Chevron’s Barbara Harrison summed up the mood to Reuters: “We still expect to see growth in the Permian, but we expect to see that moderated.” In other words, U.S. shale is no longer in “drill, baby, drill” mode. Instead of chasing volume, companies are focused on keeping costs in check and delivering returns to investors—a stark contrast to the reckless production boom of the 2010s.
Even though the U.S. remains the world’s top oil producer at 13.2 million bpd, capital discipline is the new mantra. Coterra Energy’s Shannon Flowers spoke of the irony: “The Trump administration wants lower energy prices. That’s not necessarily good for producers.”
Refiners like Delek are bracing for potential supply constraints as these producers hold back. And with Trump’s tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports looming, there’s even more uncertainty in the mix.
Bottom line: The days of unbridled U.S. shale expansion are over, oil executives say. The industry is moving cautiously, balancing supply growth with financial discipline. Trump may want a flood of new production, but Wall Street wants profits. Right now, Wall Street is winning.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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