Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices jumped by 4% at trade open in Amsterdam on Thursday, as the United States and Iran remain distant on how to end the war and put an end to the blocked LNG shipments at the Strait of Hormuz.
After surging 4% at open, the front-month price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, eased, but was still up by 3% at $84.30 (74 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh) as of mid-morning.
Prices have eased from their peak for this month of as much as $93 (82 euros) per MWh, which was the highest since January 2023, when Europe faced the first winter without most of the Russian pipeline gas supply.
Despite the pullback in recent days, the continued standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing fears of how little LNG supply is actually leaving the Middle East fueled another rally in European prices early on Thursday as Europe struggles to fill gas storage sites ahead of winter.
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The U.S. and Iran resumed indirect contacts and talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York this week, but no progress has emerged from these.
Some Qatari and UAE cargoes have managed to transit the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, but these are too low to move the needle of the global LNG balance.
The choked LNG flows from the Middle East in the past six months have sent gas prices in Asia and Europe to the highest since the 2022-2023 energy crisis as buyers are competing for available supply that doesn’t need to move through the Strait of Hormuz.
Earlier this week, Fitch Ratings raised its TTF gas assumptions for this year and next, due to the Iran conflict.
“The increased TTF gas assumptions reflect disruptions to LNG flows through Hormuz, which accounted for 20% of global LNG supply before the conflict,” Fitch Ratings said.
“EU gas storage is only two-thirds full, sufficient to avoid supply disruptions during winter but well below the 80%-90% levels at this time in 2022-2025.”
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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