Hydrogen-based green steel output could reach 46 million tonnes by 2035, according to a new report from technology research firm IDTechEx. The report highlights how regulation, corporate climate targets, and pressure from sectors like automotive and construction are driving investment in low-carbon steelmaking. However, high hydrogen costs, infrastructure gaps and policy uncertainty risk slowing progress – and 46 million tonnes is only about 2.5% of annual steel production.
Steel accounts for around 7% to 9% of global CO2 emissions and it is one of the hardest sectors to decarbonise, with high temperatures involved. In Europe, policies such as the Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), along with over €2bn ($2.2bn) in public funding, are accelerating green steel initiatives.
Other countries are taking a mix of approaches. The US offers tax credits and grants for hydrogen and carbon capture, though its longer-term outlook remains uncertain. China is rapidly expanding hydrogen capacity but still relies on fossil-derived sources such as coke oven gas for direct reduced iron (DRI) production. India, Australia and Saudi Arabia are also developing national strategies with mixed progress.
To lower emissions from existing infrastructure, steelmakers are turning to measures like hydrogen or biomass injection into blast furnaces, off-gas recycling and expanded use of electric arc furnaces. While these can cut emissions, they are not viewed as long-term solutions.
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