Gulf Oil Exports Recover to 81% of Pre-War Levels

Crude oil exports out of the Persian Gulf reached 81% of pre-war levels last month, according to fresh data from Kpler and Vortexa, cited by Reuters. The data excludes Iranian oil exports, which have dropped to zero, according to the analytics firms.

The recovery was led by Saudi Arabia, whose oil exports rose from 4.2 million barrels daily in August to some 6.6 million barrels daily in September. This Saudi recovery more than compensated for declines in exports from other Gulf oil and gas producers, according to the analysts.

Exports of crude oil, condensates, and liquefied petroleum gas, per the Vortexa data, reached an average daily of 19.2 million barrels last month. That’s still down from 23.6 million barrels daily in crude, condensates, and LPG exported before the war started, but an improvement on previous months. The data covers Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain.

Kpler data, meanwhile, said crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf averaged 18.6 million barrels daily in September. Earlier this week, Kpler said that on some days last month crude oil flows out of the Persian Gulf exceeded pre-war levels, citing figures of between 19.5 million barrels daily and 22.5 million barrels daily between September 27 and September 29.

Vortexa sounded a note of caution with regard to fuel exports, however. Noting that crude flows are back at 91% of pre-war levels, the analytics company added that fuel export flows remain at just 60% of pre-war levels that averaged 7.3 million barrels daily.

What’s more, it is still unclear whether the September flow rates can be sustained over a longer term. “Daily flows are considerably more volatile than before the war, so the key question is whether recent levels can be sustained,” Vortexa analyst Claire Jungman said, as quoted by Reuters.

By Irina Slav

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