The European Union could save a lot on LNG imports by 2030 if it achieves its heat pump, solar, and wind installation targets…so much so that the bloc could save twice the gas it imports from Qatar, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) said on Tuesday.
IEEFA, which advocates for an accelerated energy transition, estimates that heat pump deployment and increased solar and wind generation reduced the EU’s natural gas demand by 8.8 bcm in 2024. That’s equivalent to about two-thirds of EU imports of Qatari LNG that year, according to the institute.
IEEFA estimates that achieving the EU’s targets of installing at least 4 million heat pumps, 75 gigawatts (GW) of solar, and 22 GW of wind capacity annually over the next five years could slash gas demand by around a quarter by the end of 2030. That’s excluding other gas-saving measures.
This saving is equivalent to double the volume of LNG the EU could import from Qatar by 2030, per the IEEFA estimates.
“If Europe continues with efforts to reduce gas consumption, improve energy efficiency and expand renewables, LNG and pipeline gas imports will decrease and external energy crises may pose less of a threat to the continent’s energy security,” said the research author, Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, Lead Energy Analyst for IEEFA’s Europe team.
Yet, the EU is still off track to reach its renewable energy goals.
Provisional Eurostat figures last week showed that the share of energy from renewable sources in gross final energy consumption in the EU reached 26.2% last year, up from 25.2% in 2024.
However, there is still progress to be made, as the EU’s 2030 renewable energy target is 42.5%. Achieving this target would require an annual average increase of 3.3 percentage points from 2026 to 2030—three times higher than the 2025 annual increase.
Meanwhile, Europe is heading for the second-lowest level of gas storage for this time of year in 15 years and well below the five-year average, as the Middle East war hiked LNG prices and intensified competition for supply with Asia, which is currently winning the bidding war for spot supply.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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