According to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently, the U.S. will produce an average of 13.53 million barrels per day of crude oil, including lease condensate, in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) will contribute 11.32 million barrels per day of that figure, while the Federal GOM will contribute 1.78 million barrels per day, and Alaska will contribute 0.43 million barrels per day, the STEO projected.
In the third quarter of this year, the U.S. produced 13.25 million barrels per day, according to the STEO, which showed that Lower 48 states, excluding the GOM, made up 11.12 million barrels per day of that total, while the Federal GOM contributed 1.73 million barrels per day, and Alaska contributed 0.40 million barrels per day.
The EIA’s December STEO forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.24 million barrels per day overall in 2024. Lower 48 states, excluding the GOM, will contribute 11.05 million barrels per day to that total, the Federal GOM will contribute 1.77 million barrels per day, and Alaska will contribute 0.42 million barrels per day, according to the STEO.
In 2025, the EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to average 13.52 million barrels per day, the STEO revealed. Lower 48 states, excluding the GOM, will contribute 11.31 million barrels per day to that total, the Federal GOM will contribute 1.81 million barrels per day, and Alaska will contribute 0.41 million barrels per day, the STEO projected.
In 2023, the U.S. produced an average of 12.93 million barrels per day of crude oil, the STEO highlighted. That year, Lower 48 states, excluding the GOM, made up 10.64 million barrels per day of that total, the Federal GOM contributed 1.87 million barrels per day, and Alaska contributed 0.43 million barrels per day, the STEO pointed out.
Data on the EIA website showing monthly U.S. field production of crude oil from January 1920 to September 2024, which was last updated on November 29, revealed that U.S. field production of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or more in a month on 13 occasions. Eight of those came consecutively from February to September this year, the data showed.
Global Crude Oil Output
In its latest STEO, the EIA outlined that U.S. crude oil production will make up more than 17 percent of global crude oil output in the fourth quarter.
Total crude oil production is projected to average 76.90 million barrels per day this quarter in the EIA’s December STEO. Total OPEC+ production is expected to average 35.16 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and non-OPEC+ production, excluding the U.S. is anticipated to come in at 28.21 million barrels per day, the STEO highlighted.
Global crude oil output came in at 76.00 million barrels per day in the third quarter, with OPEC+ making up 35.61 million barrels of this and non-OPEC+, excluding the U.S., making up 27.14 million barrels, the STEO pointed out.
The EIA’s latest STEO projects that global crude oil production will average 76.45 million barrels per day overall in 2024, with OPEC+ making up 35.70 million barrels per day of this total and non-OPEC+, excluding the U.S., making up 27.51 million barrels per day. The STEO forecasts that global output will come in at 77.81 million barrels per day in 2025, with OPEC+ making up 35.87 million barrels per day of this total and non-OPEC+, excluding the U.S., making up 28.41 million barrels per day.
In 2023, global crude oil output averaged 76.57 million barrels per day, the STEO showed. OPEC+ contributed 37.08 million barrels per day to that total and non-OPEC+, excluding the U.S., made up 26.55 million barrels per day of the total, the STEO outlined.
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