India’s inflation is estimated to have accelerated to 5.4% in September, up from 4.82% in August, on the back of soaring oil prices and energy and food costs, a Reuters poll of economists showed on Thursday.
The forecasts of the 41 economists surveyed by Reuters ranged from 4.9% to as much as 5.9%.
Apart from food and beverage inflation, “we are also beginning to see clearer evidence of energy prices spilling over into other parts of the CPI, rather than just transport,” ANZ economist Dhiraj Nim told Reuters.
Accelerating inflation prompted India’s central bank on Wednesday to raise key interest rates for the first time in four years.
The Reserve Bank of India also shifted its policy stance to “calibrated tightening,” signaling rate cuts are off the table in the near term, Deepali Bhargava, Regional Head of Research, Asia-Pacific, at ING said.
The Indian crude import price averaged 116.09 per barrel in September, according to government data. So far in October, it has averaged above $120, at $120.06 per barrel.
The Indian basket of crude oil is the average of a derived basket comprising a sweet-grade benchmark, Dated Brent, and the sour-grade benchmark of the Oman and Dubai average imported by Indian refineries during each month.
Moreover, shipping costs on all global sea lanes are skyrocketing as trade becomes less efficient amid re-routes, longer voyages, and falling tanker availability.
India, specifically, has seen its crude oil import bill soar since the Iran war choked Middle Eastern oil supply, raised benchmark crude prices, quadrupled freight rates, and boosted insurance on a single Strait of Hormuz voyage to never-before-seen highs.
India has been paying elevated prices to import Middle Eastern crude not only because of the spike in oil prices, but also due to the surging costs to bring supply from the nearest region from which it can import crude.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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