Crude cargo arrivals in Asia from the Middle East could accelerate in the coming weeks as more than 60 million barrels of oil stuck in the Persian Gulf prepare to exit the Strait of Hormuz and head to Asian markets once the chokepoint reopens to traffic.
About 62 million barrels of crude oil on nearly three dozen supertankers are expected to make their way to Asia within weeks after the Strait reopens, according to Signal Group data carried by Bloomberg.
Asia, which felt the supply shock first and the most as early as in March, could now see a wave of much-delayed crude supply that would weigh on prices. Refiners in Asia, including China, have slashed run rates in response to the loss of supply from the Middle East and the high prices to procure alternative cargoes.
The supply waiting to exit the Strait of Hormuz could prompt some refiners to increase processing rates or opt for replenishing commercial stock tanks that have been drawn down over the past three months.
Asia, however, appears to have stocked up on enough supply at least for June and July after turning to West Africa and South and North America to offset the losses from the Middle East.
Asian refiners are well-supplied for the coming weeks, anonymous traders with knowledge of the situation told Bloomberg.
The expected imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has prompted investment banks to slash their oil price forecasts for this year and next.
Morgan Stanley, for example, now sees Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the last quarter of 2026, and $90 per barrel in the third quarter. The bank’s earlier forecast was for an average of $100 per barrel of Brent in the third quarter, while the fourth-quarter price forecast was unchanged.
Goldman Sachs cut its price forecast for the fourth quarter to $80 per barrel from $90 per barrel, and the 2027 average forecast for Brent crude to $75 per barrel from $80 in earlier forecasts. According to the bank’s commodity analysts, tanker traffic via the Strait of Hormuz would recover fully by the end of July.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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