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Oil Market Reflects Slim Chance of Supply Disruption, Goldman Analysts Say

Business & Policy
June 27, 2025

The sharp drop in the geopolitical risk premium likely reflected traders’ recent experiences with major geopolitical shocks without significant oil disruptions, Iran’s restrained response, strong U.S. and China incentives to avoid large disruptions, and the likely shift to large inventory builds from the fall, Goldman analysts said.

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Options markets see a 60% chance that Brent will stay in the $60s in three months and a 28% probability they would exceed $70, Goldman analysts said.

Were oil flows to be disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz, Brent would climb to $90 a barrel, they said.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Sonali Paul)