OPEC’s expectations of global oil demand growth “remain generally optimistic,” despite recent headwinds including risks to trade and the global economy, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Tuesday.
Al Ghais chaired the 17th Technical Meeting of OPEC and Non-OPEC Countries Participating in the ‘Charter of Cooperation’ (CoC), which was attended by delegates from OPEC+ countries and select industry experts.
The technical meeting focused on and discussed the short-to medium-term outlook of the global oil market, including demand, supply, and trade, as well as the global economy, the OPEC Secretariat said.
In his opening remarks to the panel, Secretary General Al Ghais noted that OPEC’s expectations “remain generally optimistic, despite the recent global economic developments, with global economic growth this year forecast at 2.9%, while 2026 is expected to see growth of 3.1%.”
OPEC estimates that global oil demand will grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in both 2025 and 2026.
This forecast was left unchanged in OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) out last week.
But OPEC said in the report that lower upstream spending amid falling oil prices is set to slow the growth in oil supply from producers outside the OPEC+ pact this year and next.
Liquids supply from OPEC+’s rivals – including the United States – is set to increase by 800,000 bpd in 2025, down by 100,000 bpd compared to OPEC’s assessment of 900,000-bpd growth last month.
U.S. crude oil and condensate production is anticipated to expand by 130,000 bpd this year, and by just 44,000 bpd year-over-year in 2026, according to OPEC’s estimates.
The cartel expects capital spending on exploration and production in the non-OPEC+ producers to fall in 2025 and 2026, after small growth in 2024.
In the U.S. in particular, upstream E&P liquids investment in 2024 is estimated to have dropped by 8% to about $125 billion. Investment is set to drop further, by around 9% and 7% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, according to OPEC.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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