OPEC just put a very large number on next year’s oil market: global demand growth of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027, after growth of just 200,000 bpd this year.
That would push average world oil demand from 105.7 million bpd in 2026 to 108.3 million bpd next year. OPEC also revised its 2027 demand forecast higher this month, even as it nudged this year’s growth estimate lower.
Part of that jump has little to do with people suddenly driving a lot more.
OPEC expects inventory rebuilding to contribute to next year’s demand as refiners, traders and governments start replacing barrels drawn down during the Iran war. OECD commercial stocks stood 177.2 million barrels below their 2015-2019 average in August. Product inventories alone were 80.4 million barrels below that benchmark.
The regional numbers are just as striking. OECD oil demand is expected to increase by roughly 500,000 bpd next year after declining by about 200,000 bpd in 2026. Non-OECD demand growth jumps to roughly 2 million bpd.
Gasoline leads the product rebound, followed by jet fuel and diesel. OPEC expects diesel demand to grow by roughly 420,000 bpd next year after falling by about 190,000 bpd in 2026.
Supply outside the OPEC+ Declaration of Cooperation group is not expected to keep pace. OPEC forecasts non-DoC liquids growth of just 600,000 bpd in 2027, with another roughly 100,000 bpd coming from DoC natural gas liquids and other non-conventional supply.
That leaves considerably more work for OPEC+ crude.
Demand for DoC crude is forecast to rise from 42.1 million bpd this year to 43.9 million bpd in 2027, an increase of 1.8 million bpd.
OPEC’s October report is effectively describing two very different oil markets: almost no demand growth in 2026, followed by a 2.6-million-bpd rebound as consumption recovers and somebody has to start putting the oil back into storage.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com
- Japan to Compensate Oil Importers for High Shipping Costs
- Pakistan Faces $1 Billion LNG Bill This Winter
- Super El Niño Could Ease Asia’s LNG Supply Concerns
