, carried out by Bayesian Energy and Radiant Energy for the US-based Rockefeller Foundation, included Brazil, Ghana, India, Nigeria, the Philippines, Rwanda and South Africa in its assessment.
Ashvin Dayal, Senior Vice President, Power, at the Rockefeller Foundation, said it “offers an empirically grounded perspective on the conditions under which investing in nuclear power makes economic sense, and specific actions that philanthropy can take to spur the adoption of nuclear technologies, including small modular reactors (SMRs), within the global energy system”.
The report says that “under the right policy and regulatory conditions, nuclear power – including small modular reactors – could play a more meaningful role in these countries’ energy futures than previously assumed”.
“Rather than solely focusing on Levelised Cost of Energy, we use a comprehensive energy systems modelling framework that evaluates total system costs. Our modelling shows that by 2050 nuclear energy represents 10-20% of generation in cost-optimal pathways, lowering total system costs by 2-31% compared to renewables only trajectories,” the report says.
It adds that “the firm output of nuclear power lessens the need to overbuild solar and storage to reach a zero-carbon system. Compared with pathways that rely solely on renewables, scenarios with nuclear decrease the total rollout of solar, storage, and transmission by 9-26%, 19-38%, and 12-27%, respectively, across all eight countries. This is a critical point for EMDE (Emerging Markets and Developing Economies) facing land, finance, and supply chain constraints”.
Rajiv J Shah, President of the Rockefeller Foundation, said: “As global energy demand grows, it’s never been more urgent to explore new technological pathways for emerging economies to access power and unlock opportunity for their people. This report demonstrates how nuclear energy can play a critical role in meeting that need with clean, continuous power.”
The study combined Bayesian Energy’s systems modelling “with structured qualitative research and expert interviews to assess the potential for nuclear deployment” across the eight countries which have a combined population of more than two billion people. The models looked at power systems scenarios with and without nuclear.
Key findings included that renewables and nuclear are complementary technologies rather than rivals and that enabling factors are needed to tackle financial, institutional and social barriers that may be identified.
It also said philanthropy in this field had been “long overlooked” but there was a “catalytic role that philanthropy could play – despite its historical absence from this sector – in enabling early adoption, including supporting regulatory readiness, strengthening public engagement, facilitating access to international expertise, and helping governments de-risk investment decisions”.
It said nuclear technology “delivers broader socio-environmental benefits, aligning closely with philanthropy’s many development and climate objectives” and said philanthropy could target the main obstacles identified, which “fall under the categories of government efficacy, public engagement, and nuclear financing – in the broader energy ecosystem, philanthropy has a proven track record of delivering strong impact in these areas”.
Aman Majid, co-founder of Bayesian Energy, said: “Our modelling shows that nuclear can work with renewables and storage, not against them. Pathways with nuclear still rely on major renewable buildouts, but require far less storage and transmission. That means billions of dollars in avoided costs for countries where every dollar counts – along with less land use, fewer transmission lines, and fewer permitting challenges. But those benefits only materialise if nuclear projects can be built on time and on budget and that’s where the hard work begins.”
